The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June 2025 is a major focus in the market as it will provide crucial signals regarding the direction of monetary policy and the broader macroeconomic outlook. This data is highly anticipated, especially amid global uncertainty and the potential for new US tariff policies.
June 2025 CPI Forecast
Based on a combination of consensus survey estimates and real-time nowcasting models, here are the key projections for the June 2025 CPI data:
- Monthly CPI (m/m): +0.23% to +0.30%
- Annual CPI (y/y): Around +2.6% to +2.7%
- Core Monthly CPI: +0.30%
- Core Annual CPI: ±3.0%
Final Projections:
- Headline CPI: +0.25% m/m | +2.7% y/y
- Core CPI: +0.30% m/m | +3.0% y/y
Key Implications and Considerations
Monetary Policy Signals
If core inflation (Core CPI) truly reaches or exceeds 3.0% y/y, this could delay the Federal Reserve’s plans for rate cuts, which were previously expected toward the end of this year.
Impact of Import Tariffs
This month’s CPI rise may also signal early effects of the new US tariffs on consumer prices. Although most of the impact is projected to be felt in Q4 2025, markets remain cautious about near-term price volatility.
Financial Market Response
Higher-than-expected inflation could boost the US dollar (USD) and raise bond yields. Conversely, if inflation data is softer, the Fed might opt to cut interest rates sooner than anticipated.
Latest Market Commentary
“The news of Jerome Powell’s resignation will have major market implications. This presents a huge opportunity that must be approached with a well-planned strategy. Fundamentally, the USD could strengthen significantly, driving high inflation into 2026.
Gold still has upside potential and remains a solid safe-haven asset.
In forex, the GBP/USD pair is likely to weaken as the USD strengthens.”
— Andrew Fischer, Market Strategist
Summary & Related Sectors
- Release Date: July 15, 2025, at 8:30 PM (WIB)
- CPI Forecast: +0.25% m/m (~2.7% y/y)
- Core CPI Forecast: +0.30% m/m (~3.0% y/y)
- Impact: Will guide monetary policy, influence market sentiment, and provide insight into the inflationary effects of import tariffs.
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q9WKLDZhFw