The U.S. economic calendar is once again in the spotlight. Following the release of the latest FOMC Minutes, market attention has now shifted to the Jackson Hole Symposium and the highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on August 22, 2025.
FOMC Minutes: Rates on Hold, September Cut Still Possible
According to the FOMC minutes, the Fed decided to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% – 4.50% in August. However, the possibility of a rate cut in September remains open, as Powell continues to adopt a flexible stance depending on incoming economic data.
Key Events Ahead of Jackson Hole
- August 21, 2025: U.S. labor market data will be in focus.
- August 22, 2025: Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, expected to provide a clearer signal on the Fed’s policy direction.
Market reactions will hinge on Powell’s tone:
- Hawkish → Interpreted as leaning toward tightening, signaling that a rate cut could still be on the table.
- Dovish → Suggests a cautious stance, meaning rates are likely to remain unchanged.
Historically, Powell’s speeches at Jackson Hole have triggered positive market reactions, though the impact often depends on the finer details of the policy outlook.
Technical Analysis
According to Andrew Fischer, from a price action perspective, the USD continues to show a bearish tendency. Current technical patterns indicate a potential continuation to the downside, suggesting a relatively high probability for further USD weakness in the near term.
Conclusion
With the combination of fundamentals from the FOMC and the upcoming Powell speech, alongside bearish technical signals, markets are likely to see significant volatility. Traders and investors are advised to remain vigilant, monitor real-time developments, and adjust strategies accordingly.
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