The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, at 19:15 WIB, is expected to show a strong rebound in U.S. private sector employment following a disappointing previous reading.
Key Figures:
- Forecast: 99,000 jobs
- Previous: 37,000 jobs
- Actual: To be announced
The sharp upward revision in the forecast—from 37,000 to 99,000—indicates improving labor market conditions, particularly in the services sector, including retail, hospitality, and entertainment. This improvement is likely influenced by the easing of restrictive monetary policy pressures.
Implications for the Federal Reserve and Financial Markets
A stronger-than-expected reading (above 100,000) may reduce market expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In such a scenario, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, while gold and bond prices may come under pressure due to rising yields. Conversely, equity markets may react negatively, especially growth stocks, as interest rate easing expectations fade.
Potential Market Reactions:
| ADP Result | Interpretation | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Below 50,000 | Weak job growth | USD weakens, gold strengthens, dovish Fed |
| 70,000–110,000 | Within expected range | Neutral to slightly positive market sentiment |
| Above 130,000 | Strong job market recovery | USD rallies, yields rise, equities may fall |
Investors will also monitor additional data this week, including the ISM Services Index and weekly jobless claims, as well as commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
Oil Market Insight: Price Still Range-Bound
According to Ade Yunus, Market Analyst at Maxco Futures:
“From a demand and supply standpoint, Oil prices are expected to continue moving within the $55.00 to $70.00 range. As long as demand does not show significant growth, this range is favorable for short selling activity. However, when prices approach the $55.00 level, historical bounce-back behavior suggests that the $48.00 area could be re-targeted for deep buying.”
This perspective highlights the ongoing consolidation phase in the oil market, shaped by fragile global demand and limited supply-side shocks.
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_cw4zu1Hn0
