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DAILY ANALYSIS

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Forecasting Strategy for Short Term Trade

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is down some 0.1% on the day so far and has been trading between 1.1361 and 1.1379 so far. For the second straight day on Thursday, EUR/USD climbed above 1.1350 but failed to preserve its bullish momentum. The pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase around 1.1300 on Friday and market participants will eye a breakout of well-defined technical levels when the market action normalizes after the New Year holiday.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has enjoyed a decent spell on the bid into the end of the year, rising from a low of 112.53 near the start of December and potentially climaxing around the current levels near 115.15. However, on a break of 115.53, the bulls could be encouraged to target 118.50 for weeks ahead. The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid through the early North American session and was last seen hovering near the monthly top, around the 115.15-20 region.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has been on the march for the latter part of December and is starting the New Year on the front foot. The daily chart shows that the price is on the way towards mitigating the space between here and 1.3605. However, for the meanwhile, there are prospects of pressures to the downside towards 1.3520.

GBP/USD has reversed its direction after rising to its highest level in more than a month at 1.3505 during the Asian trading hours. The dollar's market valuation continues to drive the pair's action heading into 2022 and volatility could increase ahead of the New Year holiday. 

AUD/USD

AUD/USD ended 2021 on the front foot, adding 0.3% on Friday, reaching as high as 0.7277. However, there are a number of risk events on the US calendar this week and plenty of jitters surrounding COVID-19 to give the bulls reason to remain cautious at the start of the New year.  

While the early reports suggest omicron is less deadly, it is also much more infectious and can still overload healthcare systems around the world. AUD is a high beta currency so it would be expected to struggle in such an environment whereby investors will shield capital away from riskier asset classes, such as global equities.

XAU/USD

Gold struggles to extend 2021 gains during the early hours of 2022, easing to $1.828 amid Monday’s Asian session, as market sentiment dwindles during a quiet day. Markets remain lackluster joined by an absence of major data/events.

Spot gold is little changed on a daily basis, marginally higher around the 1.813 level. The dollar keeps seesawing between gains and losses without a certain catalyst as investors close their books for 2021.

Meanwhile, European indexes closed with modest gains, while Wall Street is also up at the time being. Government bond yields consolidate Thursday gains, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note currently around 1.53%.

WTI

WTI crude oil prices rise towards $76.00, up 0.55% near $75.70 during the mid-Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the black gold takes clues from upbeat market sentiment and hawkish comments from OPEC+ (an alliance of Russia and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)).

Intra-day volatility that has seen WTI dip just under $1.0 on the session shouldn’t distract from the fact that oil prices are set to post their best annual return since 2009. WTI is set to post gains of more than 55% having surged from lows last January of underneath $50.00 per barrel. Crude oil has surged this year as the global economy has recovered from the 2020 pandemic-induced recession and become more resilient with time to successive waves of the virus, largely thanks to rising vaccination rates.

#CSCO

Cisco Systems closed the most recent trading day at $63.37, moving -0.39% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.26%. 

Prior to today's trading, shares of the seller of routers, switches, software and services had gained 13.3% over the past month. This has outpaced the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 2.19% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.82% in that time.

Investors will be hoping for strength from Cisco Systems as it approaches its next earnings release. On that day, Cisco Systems is projected to report earnings of $0.81 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 2.53%. 

#XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation Report said Thursday that it anticipates higher gasoline prices will boost its earnings by $700 million to $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter from the third quarter.

An increase in natural gas liquids prices should tack on another $400 million to $800 million, the energy titan wrote in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Changes in chemical margins will subtract $600 million to $800 million from earnings, changes in unsettled derivatives will add $500 million to $1.1 billion, and changes in downstream refining margins will have a neutral to negative $200 million impact, Exxon said.

The stock recently traded at $61.08, up 0.47%.

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