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WEEKLY ANALYSIS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

PIVOT

EUR/USD

The Euro initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday but gave back the gains to stay within the consolidation area. By doing so, the market looks as if it has nowhere to be, as we are simply killing time between now and the end of the year in a relatively well-defined range.

The 1.1375 level is significant resistance, while the 1.1225 level is significant support. As time goes on, there will be less people are trading this market, meaning that it probably will not do much. The 1.13 level seems to be a bit of a magnet for price.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD adheres to consolidation of the recent gains, like other major currency pairs, during the quiet Asian session on Friday. The cable pair refreshed the monthly top to 1.3437 the previous day before recently taking rounds to 1.3410.

Fresh challenges to the GBP/USD prices could have come from the Brexit front, as well as firmer yields by the end of Thursday’s North American session. Holiday mood and light volume add to the trading filters.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is perched in bullish territory although the W-formation on the daily chart could be troublesome for the bulls in the next few days. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 114.45 and has moved between a low of 114.32 and a high of 114.47.

Risk sentiment improved this week due to a stream of cautiously positive headlines which have been weighing on the greenback and the yen. Investors are expecting that COVID variants will not disrupt global development after all and this has given the bulls on Wall Street good reason to get on board the Santa Claus rally.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD prices have likely switched to the Christmas mood in advance, after refreshing the monthly high with 0.7253. That said, the Aussie pair seesaws around an upward sloping trend line from November 30 while taking rounds to 0.7250 during early Friday morning in Asia.

Positive updates concerning the milder fears from the South African covid variant, dubbed as Omicron, join upbeat signs of medical cure to the stated virus variant to favor the risk appetite. Adding to the firmer sentiment are the hopes of US stimulus, despite short-term bleak at the White House.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD bounces off 20-DMA to consolidate weekly losses around 1.2815, up 0.10% intraday during early Friday. USD/CAD pair tracks a pause in the prices of Canada’s key export item WTI crude oil to print the latest corrective pullback. However, lackluster markets during the holiday season challenge the moves of late.

That said, Thursday’s firmer US Treasury yields and upbeat prints of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core PCE Price Index, seemed to have prepared the based for the USD/CAD buyer’s return. It should be noted that Canadian GDP matched 0.8% upbeat forecasts, versus 0.2% upwardly revised prior, for October.

XAU/USD

Gold (XAU/USD) prices hang in balance around $1,809, after refreshing the week’s high to $1,810 the previous day. In doing so, the yellow metal shows the typical market inactivity during Christmas Eve.

That said, the bulls recently cheered optimism concerning the fewer odds of hospitalization due to the South African COVID variant, dubbed as Omicron. Also positive for gold was the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval of Merck's Covid-19 pill, a day after approving Pfizer’s pill to battle the Omicron. Earlier in the week, US Military also conveyed news of developing a single cure for COVID and all variants.

HSI

Shares in Asia-Pacific largely rose in Friday trade following gains overnight on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 closing at a new record. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.48%. Mainland Chinese stocks were also in positive territory, with the Shanghai composite fractionally higher while the Shenzhen component hovered above the flatline. Some markets in Asia-Pacific, including Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong, are set to close early on Friday due to Christmas Eve.

NIKKEI

The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.1% to 28.825 while the broader Topix Index was flat on Friday. Market leaders include Lasertec (3.9%), Tokyo Electron (1.5%), Fronteo (4.8%), Mitsui High Tec (4.8%), Globalway (17%) and Japan Electronic (7%). Meanwhile, shipping giants, airlines and export-heavy companies slumped amid the spread of the omicron variant through community transmission in some parts of Japan. Declines were seen from Nippon Yusen (-0.7%), Kawasaki Kisen (-2.5%), Toyota (-0.2%), Fast Retailing (-0.4%) and Japan Airlines (-0.5%). The Nikkei index is headed for its third weekly gain as Japanese equities continued to recover from market routs driven by fears around the new variant and expectations of monetary policy tightening from major central banks.

#BABA

BABA got on board the Santa Claus rally on Thursday ahead of the market closing for the weekend holidays. Wall Street's stock market will be closed on Friday in observation of Xmas day that falls on a Saturday. 

From a technical standpoint, the price of the stock is correcting an hourly bullish impulse and rested back to the 'Point of Control' (PoC) of the day's volume near 118.65 where the most transactions took place throughout the day. However, traders will note the 50% mean reversion is located at 117.53, a tough below the prior day's closing price of 117.81. BABA trades at $118.66 per share, up 0.73% heading into the US close.

#GOOGL

Shares of Alphabet Inc. Cl A GOOGL, +0.34% inched 0.34% higher to $2.938.33 Thursday, on what proved to be an all-around positive trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.62% rising 0.62% to 4.725.79 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.55% rising 0.55% to 35.950.56. This was the stock's third consecutive day of gains. Alphabet Inc. Cl A closed $81.00 below its 52-week high ($3.019.33), which the company reached on November 19th.

The stock underperformed when compared to some of its competitors Thursday, as Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.36% rose 0.36% to $176.28, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.45% rose 0.45% to $334.69, and Meta Platforms Inc. FB, +1.45% rose 1.45% to $335.24. Trading volume (1.3M) remained 325.847 below its 50-day average volume of 1.6 M.

#AMZN

Amazon reported third-quarter results on Oct. 28. Adjusted earnings fell 51% from the year-ago period to $6.12. Analysts expected $8.92 a share. Revenue climbed 15% to $110.8 billion, below expectations of $111.6 billion. For its fourth quarter, Amazon forecast revenue in the range of $130 billion to $140 billion. That missed analyst estimates for $142 billion. Amazon forecast earnings before interest and taxes, called EBIT, of $1.5 billion, versus estimates of $8.1 billion.

The company's cloud-computing unit, Amazon Web Services, reported revenue growth of 39% to $11.6 billion. That topped estimates for 35% cloud-computing growth. Cowen analyst John Blackledge recently raised his price target on Amazon stock to 4.500, from 4.300. He listed Amazon as one of the "best ideas" for 2022, in the mega-cap category.

#AXP

American Express Company AXP is currently riding on rebounding revenues, an advanced digital solutions suite, innovative card offerings and a strong financial position.

The stock has gained 38.4% in a year compared with the industry’s and the Finance sector’s rally of 14.2% and 21%, respectively. The S&P 500 composite has risen 26.1% in the said time frame.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Express’ 2022 earnings suggests growth of 1.1% from the year-ago reported figure while the same for revenues stands at a 14.4% rise. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 20%, better than the industry’s average of 17.2%.

Monday, December 27

New Zealand, Australia, England, Canada are closed for Christmas. Data from the US Dallas Manufacturing Index Dec forecast 9.5 from 11.8 the previous month.

Tuesday, December 28

Japan: Nov. Unemployment Rate forecast 2.7 percent the same as previous data. Next Industrial Production Nov, forecast 1.1% from 1.8%.

United States of AmericaS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM data showing Oct forecast 1.1% from 0.8% previously.

Wednesday, December 29

United States of America: There is data from the US, Goods Trade Balance Nov. Estimated -$86 billion from -$83.2 billion. US November MoM Pending Home Sales 3.6% versus 7.5%.

Thursday, December 30

United States of America: Jobless Claims Dec 25, no forecast yet compared to the previous week's

205K. Chicago PMI Dec data, forecast at 62.4 versus 61.8 previously. 

Friday, December 31

China: NBS manufacturing PMI Dec data is estimated to be 50.5 from 50.1 previous data.

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