The Federal Reserve is set to release the FOMC meeting minutes from June 17–18 on Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 01:00 WIB. The release is anticipated to shed light on internal debates over the timing and likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months.
What Will Be Revealed?
The minutes will likely expose the tension between dovish policymakers (who want to begin cutting rates as early as July or September) and hawks (who prefer to wait for further data on inflation and tariff effects).
A key theme will be whether the recent tariff hikes are expected to cause long-lasting inflationary pressures or if the impact is seen as temporary.
💬 Geraldo Kofit – RnD Maxco:
“Tonight’s FOMC minutes could be a turning point. If dovish tones dominate, markets may begin pricing in a rate cut in September. But if caution remains, the Fed is likely to stay on its ‘wait and see’ course.”
Why This Matters
This document will play a critical role in aligning market expectations, which remain split—some expect 2 to 3 rate cuts this year, while others believe more clarity is needed from economic data.
It could offer the first clear signal on whether September 2025 is a likely starting point for rate reductions—or if the Fed prefers to hold off.
Potential Market Reactions:
| Asset | Potential Reaction |
|---|---|
| Bonds | Yields fall if dovish → bond prices rise; yields rise if hawkish. |
| US Dollar | Weakens on dovish tone; strengthens if Fed sees inflation risk from tariffs. |
| Equities | Volatile. Slight relief rally if dovish; mild pressure if hawkish. |
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2ILhaxyDlU