McDonald’s Corporation is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on the morning of Wednesday, August 6, before the market opens. Wall Street expects moderate growth in both earnings and revenue compared to the previous year, although the company continues to face inflationary pressures and shifting global consumer behavior.
Q2 2025 Performance Estimates:
- Earnings per Share (EPS): $3.15 (up 6% YoY)
- Revenue: $6.7 billion (up 3.27% YoY)
Analyst revisions over the past 90 days have been mixed: EPS estimates were raised 13 times and lowered 13 times, while revenue estimates were revised up 11 times and down 8 times.
Over the past two years, McDonald’s has delivered a beat rate of 63% for both EPS and revenue, indicating moderate consistency but leaving room for surprises—especially around same-store sales performance and international operations.
Key areas of investor focus:
- Same-store sales trends, particularly in international markets
- Franchisee profitability and margins amid inflationary pressures
- Menu innovation and digital growth
- Management’s outlook on consumer spending patterns across regions
In the previous Q1 report, global comparable sales declined by 1%, missing expectations for a 0.5% gain. In the U.S., sales fell 3.6%, far below the forecasted 1% drop—marking the weakest performance since 2020, driven by a decline in guest traffic.
On the stock performance side, McDonald’s has lagged in 2025. MCD shares are up only 4.3% year-to-date (YTD), underperforming the S&P 500’s 7.5% gain, amid ongoing macroeconomic concerns and uneven consumer spending.
EARNINGS PROJECTION
McDonald’s (MCD) is scheduled to release its Q2 2025 earnings report on August 6 before the market opens. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $3.14 with revenue around $6.68 billion, reflecting a modest year-over-year revenue growth of just 3%. McDonald’s stock has risen approximately 4% year-to-date (YTD), but still trades slightly below its 52-week high of $326.
Key Investor Focus Areas:
- Same-Store Sales and Value Strategy:
- In Q1, global comparable sales declined by 1%, while the International Licensed Markets segment posted a 3.5% gain.
- Programs like the McValue $5 meal deal and beverage promotions will be closely analyzed to determine if they effectively drive foot traffic without significantly impacting profit margins.
- Margin Resilience:
- McDonald’s has emphasized operational efficiency, especially in labor management and supply chain optimization.
- Investors will be watching to see if cost-control efforts can support margin expansion without compromising service quality or customer traffic.
- International Market Performance:
- Demand across regions remains mixed.
- In the previous quarter, the UK negatively impacted results, while the Middle East and Japan contributed positively.
- Performance in markets like France and Hong Kong will also be under scrutiny as sales trends there have remained inconsistent.
With McDonald’s valuation heavily reliant on stable earnings, both the Q2 results and management commentary during the earnings call will be crucial in determining whether the company can sustain profit growth amid stagnant revenue trends.
Earning Projection Prediction
WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING
