Global gold prices have made history after breaking through the psychological level of US$4,100 per troy ounce, marking a new all-time high in the precious metals market. The surge came amid renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will soon begin cutting interest rates.
On Monday (October 13, 2025), gold prices soared 2.31% to close at US$4,110.12 per troy ounce, setting a record high and firmly surpassing the symbolic US$4,000 threshold that had long served as a key resistance level.
However, in early Tuesday trading (October 14, 2025), gold prices eased slightly by 0.08% to US$4,106.87 per troy ounce, signaling a short-term consolidation after a strong rally.
A Spectacular Rally: Gold Up 56% in 2025
So far this year, gold has climbed approximately 56%, supported by a mix of geopolitical uncertainty, global economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. monetary easing. Strong central bank purchases and steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs have also provided a solid foundation for its upward momentum.
Market analysts believe the rally still has room to run.
“Gold can easily extend its gains — we could see prices above US$5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026,” said Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures.
He added that consistent central bank buying, robust ETF inflows, U.S.–China trade tensions, and the Fed’s dovish outlook are key structural supports for the precious metal.
Global Tensions and the Fed’s Dovish Signal
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with China last Friday, ending the uneasy truce between the world’s two largest economies. The move spurred demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, both of which climbed to record highs.
Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with a 100% chance of another cut in December.
In a low-interest-rate environment, gold — a non-yielding asset — tends to perform strongly as investors seek stability and capital preservation.
Upgraded Forecasts from Global Banks
Major financial institutions are turning increasingly bullish on gold:
- Bank of America (BoA) and Societe Generale now forecast gold to reach US$5,000 per ounce by 2026.
- Standard Chartered Bank has raised its average price outlook for next year to US$4,488 per ounce.
Still, some analysts warn that short-term corrections may be necessary for the long-term uptrend to remain sustainable.
“A brief pullback would be healthy for the market after such an impressive rally,” said Suki Cooper, Head of Global Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank.
Conclusion
Gold’s climb above US$4,100 reflects a broader market shift in sentiment toward risk and monetary policy expectations.
With geopolitical tensions rising, potential Fed rate cuts, and strong institutional demand, the precious metal appears well-positioned to shine even brighter through 2026.