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INTEL Earning Report

Jakarta — Shares of Intel Corp. (INTC) are expected to see sharp volatility following the company’s third-quarter earnings report, which will be released Thursday evening U.S. time. Based on options pricing, the market is pricing in a potential move of around ±10%, implying a range of roughly US$42 if results are strong, or US$32 if they disappoint.

This comes after Intel’s previous quarterly results triggered an 8% drop in its share price due to unexpected losses and weak guidance. While Intel’s stock has rallied nearly 90% year-to-date, some analysts remain cautious, with an average price target of US$30.60, roughly 20% below current market levels.

Investor optimism has been buoyed by U.S. government investment, which took nearly a 10% stake in Intel, along with new partnerships with Nvidia and SoftBank — developments seen as a potential boost to Intel’s foundry business revival.

Traders will focus on Intel’s forward guidance and commentary regarding its chip manufacturing outlook during the upcoming earnings call. A strong report could extend the recent rally, while disappointing results could trigger a sharp correction.

1. Earnings Expectations

Intel is expected to report third-quarter revenue of around US$13.2 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at just US$0.02.
According to Reuters, Intel may post a ~1% year-over-year decline in revenue to US$13.14 billion.
Segment breakdown: The Client Computing (PC) division is expected to grow ~11% to US$8.12 billion, supported by the Windows upgrade cycle and new Intel processors.
The Foundry Services unit (third-party chip manufacturing) is projected to deliver relatively flat revenue of ~US$4.37 billion.

2. Positive Drivers

Intel recently secured significant investments: approximately US$5 billion from NVIDIA, US$2 billion from SoftBank Group, and a ~10% equity stake from the U.S. government — providing renewed confidence in Intel’s foundry capabilities.
PC demand is showing signs of recovery, with Gartner reporting global PC shipments up about 8% during the quarter.
The launch of Intel’s new 18A node processors serves as a potential catalyst for both the PC and foundry segments.

3. Key Challenges and Risks

Despite encouraging signals, Intel continues to face major competitive pressure in both PC and server CPU markets from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and the growing adoption of ARM-based architectures, which could threaten Intel’s x86 business model.
Many analysts question whether the ~80% stock rally this year is sustainable, as expectations may already be priced in.
Share dilution remains a concern: large-scale investments and new share issuances (including the government stake) could reduce future EPS.
The foundry unit must still prove its ability to attract large, external third-party clients to achieve meaningful scale — failure to do so could result in stagnant revenue growth.

4. Implications for Investors

Given the current setup — elevated expectations but unproven turnaround performance — Intel’s stock presents a sharp risk-reward profile: high upside potential if results surprise to the upside, but equally high downside risk if they disappoint.
Risk-tolerant investors who believe in Intel’s transformation story — particularly in foundry operations and next-generation processors — may view this as an opportunity.
Meanwhile, conservative investors focused on stability and earnings visibility may prefer to stay cautious.
Key focus areas during the earnings release will include:
- Whether Intel’s large-scale investments are beginning to yield measurable results;
- Signs of margin recovery;
- Updates on the PC, server, and foundry business dynamics.
External factors such as the global PC replacement cycle, competitive landscape, and macroeconomic conditions will also play a crucial role. For example, while PC demand may rise due to Windows refreshes, there’s a risk that this demand is “front-loaded,” potentially leading to weaker sales in subsequent quarters.