Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the current global economic condition is not as bad as many had feared earlier. Several key indicators are now pointing toward recovery, particularly in the global manufacturing sector, which has returned to an expansion phase.
Global manufacturing activity, which previously contracted, has started to rebound. The Global Market Index (GMI) rose to 50.6%, surpassing the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion — a clear sign that the global economy is entering a more stable growth phase.
In line with this trend, most G20 and ASEAN member countries are also showing solid economic improvement. The recovery in manufacturing performance sends positive signals for global supply chains, export-import activity, and overall investment sentiment.
Domestically, Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI climbed significantly to 51.5 in August, indicating expansion in the industrial sector. This is encouraging news for the national economy, as manufacturing remains one of Indonesia’s key growth drivers.
Impact on Forex and Commodity Markets
The recovery in global economic activity not only affects the real sector but also serves as a key catalyst for movements in financial markets — particularly foreign exchange (forex) and commodities.
Currency Stability
Rising manufacturing activity generally boosts demand for the currencies of major exporting nations. In this context, currencies such as the US dollar, euro, and yen tend to move more steadily as global trade activity increases.
Potential Rupiah Strength
For Indonesia, the outlook for global manufacturing expansion and stronger economic growth could strengthen the rupiah against the US dollar. Improved market sentiment may also attract more foreign capital inflows into domestic bonds and equities, supporting currency appreciation.
Rising Commodity Prices
An upswing in manufacturing activity also fuels demand for commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and other industrial metals. For traders, this environment offers opportunities for both short- and medium-term strategies — especially in commodity-linked currency pairs and spot gold contracts.
Market Momentum to Watch for Traders
Although the global outlook appears positive, traders should remain cautious of risks that could trigger volatility — such as central bank interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and major economic data releases from key economies.
Forex traders can take advantage of currency movements by monitoring macroeconomic releases such as PMI, trade balance, and inflation data. Meanwhile, commodity traders can focus on gold and oil, which often serve as preferred instruments during periods of global recovery.
The ongoing global recovery presents a strong opportunity in financial markets. With currencies and commodities showing increased activity, traders can capitalize on these movements to maximize profit potential.
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