Today, global market attention will be focused on the release of several major U.S. economic data points that could significantly impact movements in the dollar, gold, and equity indices. At 7:30 PM WIB, multiple macroeconomic reports will be released simultaneously, likely triggering sharp volatility.
Key Fundamental Data to Watch
- Durable Goods Orders (August)
Forecast: -0.7% after plunging -2.8% in the previous month. A deeper decline than expected may signal further weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector, putting pressure on the USD. - Q2 GDP Growth (Final)
Expected to surge to 3.3% from -0.5% previously. A result in line with or above expectations would signal a strong U.S. economic rebound, supporting the dollar. Conversely, a weaker figure could disappoint markets. - GDP Price Index (Q2 Final)
Consensus: 2.0%, down from 3.8%. A stronger-than-expected reading would suggest lingering inflationary pressure, potentially pushing bond yields higher and boosting the USD. - Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240,000. A higher figure would suggest labor market weakness, negative for the USD. However, a significant decline could provide upside momentum for the dollar. - Trade Balance (August)
Deficit expected to narrow to -$93 billion from -$103 billion. A smaller deficit would be viewed as positive for the dollar’s outlook.
Potential Market Impact
- USD (DXY): Likely to strengthen if GDP and Durable Goods data beat expectations.
- U.S. Equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq): May rally on strong GDP, though higher inflation could weigh on sentiment.
- Gold (XAUUSD): Likely to gain if data comes in weak (USD softens). Conversely, strong data could pressure gold prices.
- U.S. Bonds: Softer inflation data could push yields lower, supporting a bond rally.
Conclusion
Today marks a crucial moment: final GDP, durable goods orders, and jobless claims will serve as key catalysts for the dollar and global markets. With heightened volatility expected, traders should prepare adaptive strategies to navigate market swings.