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DAILY ANALYSIS

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Forecasting Strategy for Short Term Trade

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Wednesday, reaching an intraday high of 1.1346. Demand for the American dollar remained subdued ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, which revived concerns about skyrocketing inflation. At the same time, upbeat US employment-related figures maintained Wall Street on the winning side, except for the Nasdaq, which fell again on the back of a tech sell-off. The German index printed at 48.7, slightly better than anticipated, although indicating contraction. The final EU figure came down to 53.1.  

USD/JPY

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committe minutes that are at the top of the hour, the price is trapped below the descending resistance line and has left a W-formation on the 1-hour chart.

A retest of the support near 115.80 could equate to a bid back to the dynamic resistance. If this breaks, then bulls will be encouraged to push beyond 116 and towards 116.50 in the coming sessions. If the support breaks, however, then the bears will be keen on a test below 115.50 to 115.35 support. The FOMC Minutes spurred the dollar’s demand, as policymakers noted that conditions for a rate hike could be met soon, pushing government bond yields higher. 

GBP/USD

Following Monday's decline, GBP/USD has returned within the ascending regression channel coming from December 21. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart is holding near 60, confirming the bullish bias. However, the pair has failed to climb above the static resistance that seems to have formed at 1.3560 and buyers could move to the sidelines as long as this level holds. In case a four-hour candle closes above that hurdle, the next target on the upside could be seen at 1.3600 (psychological level). GBP/USD has managed to stage a decisive rebound after dropping below 1.3500.

The renewed dollar weakness mid-week is helping GBP/USD preserve its bullish momentum. Following Monday's impressive upsurge, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield lost its traction late Tuesday and stays in the negative territory during the European trading hours, making it difficult for the dollar to find demand.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pares Tuesday’s gains during the New York session after the Federal Reserve minutes showed that most Fed members judged that conditions for hiking rates could be met relatively soon if the labor market “improvements continued.” The pair is trading at 0.7229 at press time.

The AUD/USD extends its initial slide from 0.7265 down to 0.7229, breaching below the confluence of the 100 and the 200-hour simple moving averages (SMAs), while US 10-year bond yields rose to 1.712%, for the first time since October 2021.

XAU/USD

Gold has fallen sharply on the back of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes that stated, ''in light of elevated inflation pressures & strengthening labour market, participants judged increase in policy accommodation provided by the ongoing pace of net asset purchases no longer necessary.'' Gold fell from $1.824.50 to a low of $1.812.50 on the kneejerk and is on the verge of turning red on the day. 

The minutes stated that ''participants remarked FOMC should continue to be prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook.'' They also stated that ''most participants judged conditions for a rate hike could be met relatively soon.

WTI

Oil markets have shrugged off bearish weekly US inventory numbers and are advancing higher, with front-month WTI futures having broken to the north of resistance in the mid-$77.0s to now trade in the mid-$78.0s. That marks its highest price since 25 November, the day before Omicron fears swept financial markets, with WTI now up roughly $4.0 from earlier weekly lows. Short-term bullish oil speculators will likely be targeting a test of a key level of support turned resistance from back in mid-November around $79.30. The most notable support to the downside is around $77.50 and the 50-day moving average just under $76.00.

#FB

The In the last trading session, 15.61 million shares of the Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) were traded, and its beta was 1.29. Most recently the company’s share price was $336.53, and it changed around -$2.01 or -0.59% from the last close, which brings the market valuation of the company to $958.44B. FB currently trades at a discount to its 52-week high of $384.33, offering almost -14.2% off that amount. The share price’s 52-week low was $244.61, which indicates that the current value has risen by an impressive 27.31% since then. We note from Meta Platforms Inc.’s average daily trading volume that its 3-month average coming to 22.93 million.

Meta Platforms Inc. stock received a consensus recommendation rating of an Overweight, based on a mean score of 1.90.

#GS

The trading price of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) closing at $405.73-0.43% lower than its previous close. Traders who pay close attention to intraday price movement should know that it has been fluctuating between $401.18 and $410.28. The company’s P/E ratio in the trailing 12-month period was 6.72. In examining the 52-week price action we see that the stock hit a 52-week high of $426.16 and a 52-week low of $262.57. Over the past month, the stock has gained 6.47% in value.

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., whose market valuation is $137.48 billion at the time of this writing, is expected to release its quarterly earnings report Jan 17, 2022 – Jan 21, 2022. The dividend yield on the company stock is 1.96%, while its Forward Dividend ratio is 8.00. Investors’ optimism about the company’s current quarter earnings report is understandable. Analysts have predicted the quarterly earnings per share to grow by $9.67 per share this quarter, however they have predicted annual earnings per share of $53.12 for 2021 and $37.63 for 2022. It means analysts are expecting annual earnings per share growth of 114.70% this year and -29.20% next year.

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