Amid ongoing global dynamics—from trade tensions between the United States and China to the gradual emergence of de-dollarization—the upcoming US Retail Sales data has become a key focus for assessing consumer purchasing power. But what are the current market projections, and what opportunities can traders take advantage of?
US Consumer Power: Present, But Not Significant
While there has been a slight uptick in consumer purchasing power in the US, the figures remain modest. The primary reason lies in market uncertainty, triggered by the unclear direction of global trade. With US-China trade relations beginning to ease, consumers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, showing caution in making major spending decisions.
As a result, despite inflation being relatively under control and interest rates remaining stable, there hasn’t been a consumption surge strong enough to significantly boost Retail Sales. This signals that the domestic economic fundamentals may not yet be strong enough to create consistent upward pressure on prices.
De-dollarization: A Gradual But Steady Trend
The issue of de-dollarization has started gaining traction in global discussions. Major countries are beginning to explore alternative transaction systems outside the US dollar. Although the direct impact is not yet visible in day-to-day trading, it is a long-term factor that could influence the dollar’s value and investor perception of USD-based assets.
Retail Sales: A Key Consumer Sentiment Indicator
Retail Sales is more than just a data point. It reflects how confident consumers feel about the economy and how willing they are to spend. Under current conditions, Retail Sales data is not expected to show a dramatic jump. This indicates that while people are still spending, they are not making large or speculative purchases.
USD Projections and Market Impact
From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index shows signs of strength. However, this upward movement appears overly aggressive, opening the possibility for a price correction. If Retail Sales data falls short of expectations, the dollar may weaken as markets respond to signals of declining consumer demand.
Meanwhile, easing trade tariffs between the US and China has not yet boosted consumption. Instead, the market remains in a state of waiting for more concrete clarity.
Affected Sectors? Nearly All of Them
The US-China trade war has not only impacted the technology and manufacturing sectors—it has affected almost all industries, especially through pressure on consumer demand. Sluggish purchasing power places strain on the retail, automotive, and even energy sectors.
Short-Term Trading Opportunities: Focus on USD and Gold
For traders, this environment presents opportunities to capitalize on short-term movements in USD pairs over the next one to two weeks. Volatility remains high, but the fundamentals still favor dollar strength in the near term.
On the other hand, gold prices are currently at relatively low levels. This could be a strategic buying opportunity before prices rebound—especially if US economic data disappoints, which typically pushes investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Nasdaq, Hang Seng, and Wall Street: Mixed Reactions
Indexes such as the Nasdaq and Hang Seng have shown mixed responses to global developments. The Hang Seng remains relatively stable despite lingering concerns over Trump-era tariffs. Wall Street seems largely unaffected by Retail Sales data for now, as the index had already risen in anticipation of the release.
However, it’s important to note that public sentiment and market reaction to tonight’s Retail Sales data could trigger new movements—especially in equity indexes and risk-based assets.
Conclusion: Stay Alert, but Be Ready to Act
Given the current conditions, the best strategy for traders includes:
- Monitoring lower timeframes to capture quick post-data reactions.
- Taking short-term opportunities in USD pairs.
- Considering accumulation of gold positions at low prices as a hedge against global uncertainty.
- Continuing to track key economic indicators such as CPI, NFP, and Retail Sales as core decision-making references.
While this Retail Sales report may not bring major surprises, market reactions will still create trading opportunities—for those who are ready to watch closely and respond quickly to news and sentiment shifts.
