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Forecasting Strategy for Short Term Trade


The EUR/USD pair is down for a second consecutive day, trading near a daily low of 1.1279. The American currency surged amid persistent risk-aversion, pushing investors away from high-yielding assets. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told President Putin that the US had put forward concrete proposals on reducing military risks and that he could see a way to move forward with talks, although he added that EU and NATO responses have not been satisfactory. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde testified on the ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament. She noted that the bank would take action at the right time to achieve its 2% inflation goal over the medium term.


USD/JPY - 115.48. The pair swung in choppy fashion in volatile trading on Mon. Despite initial weakness to 115.20 in Australia following Fri's intra-day selloff in NY afternoon in tandem with US yields fm 115.98 to as low as 115.02 on safe-haven yen buying on escalating tension in Ukraine, price quickly recovered on market chatter of imminent dovish BOJ's open market operation. Dlr climbed to 115.59 ahead of Tokyo open n despite a retreat to 115.31, price rebounded to 115.57 on news BOJ announced it offered to buy unlimited amount of JGBs outright at fixed-rate with residual maturities of more than 5 years and up to 10 years from 2/15. Expect choppy swings to continue but intra-day weakness in Nikkie (N225 currently down 2.25% at 27.072)  Asian stocks should weigh of European stocks later, so another bout of yen buying should be seen. 


GBP/USD has faced renewed bearish pressure after closing the previous week in the positive territory with safe-haven flows dominating the financial markets. The pair was last seen testing 1.3500 and the bearish pressure could ramp up in case that levels turn into resistance. Reports claiming that Russia could invade Ukraine this week is causing investors to seek refuge at the beginning of the week. In turn, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is down 2.2% in the early European session. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release the labour market report. Markets expect the annual wage inflation in three months to December, as measured by the Average Earnings Including Bonus, to decline to 3.9% from 4.2%. A stronger-than-expected print could help the British pound find demand and vice versa.


As markets remain skittish on the prospect of a potentially imminent Russian military incursion into Ukraine, macro sentiment remains on the defensive and, as such, AUD/USD continues to trade with a negative bias. The pair is down around 0.2% on the day in the 0.7125 area, having recovered somewhat from a brief dip underneath the 0.7100 level early during European trade, but having failed to recover back to the 0.7150 level.

Earlier in the day, Russia indicated a preference for continuing diplomacy, but Satellite imagery cited by US press shows that Russian troops near the Ukrainian border are moving into attack positions. Meanwhile, the Ukraine President “jokingly” referred to Wednesday as a possible date when Russia may attack, a statement which markets took seriously at first, but now are unsure what to make of.


Gold, (XAU/USD), is higher in the final hours of Wall Street trading as tensions remain high around the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gold is up 0.68% and has rallied from a low of $1.850.84 to a high of $1.874.19 so far as the US continues to report the increased likelihood of a Russian attack despite diplomatic endeavours that have so far yet to bear any fruit.  The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky was reported to have said that the Ukraine “has been informed” that Wednesday, February 16 “will be the day of the attack”.

However, risk appetite turned on a dime when a senior Ukrainian official denied that President Zelensky was being literal when he said in an address to the nation that he'd been told a Russian attack would begin on February 16th, Mykhailo Podoliak, a Presidential adviser, said.


US crude oil benchmark, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), barely advances, following Friday’s jump of 3.78%. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $94.00, almost flat. Geopolitical events dampened the market mood in the financial markets. Based on the fact that a war may trigger Russia’s sanctions to western countries, including cutting supplies of natural gas and oil. (Russia is the third-largest producer of natural gas and crude.)

With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude piercing the $90/bbl mark, chatter of $100+ oil has picked up further steam. Is peak oil supply on the horizon? According to strategists at the Bank of Montreal, it is probably too early to declare peak oil supply has arrived. “It’s the growing risk that global oil supply could increasingly lag the recovery in demand that is underpinning the surge. This has prompted us to revise up our WTI forecast to $85/bbl in 2022 and $80 in 2023 (previously $75 and $77.50, respectively).”


The Procter & Gamble Company PG retained its robust earnings surprise for more than three years, while its revenues topped estimates for the seventh straight time in the fiscal second quarter. Net sales advanced 6% year over year, owing to strength across all segments, coupled with robust volume and pricing gains.

Procter & Gamble remains focused on productivity and cost-saving plans to boost margins. The company has been witnessing cost savings and efficiency improvements via continued investment in businesses alongside efforts to offset cost headwinds. As a result, it expects $800 million in COGS savings this year. Its core currency-neutral gross and operating margins reflected 80-bps gains from productivity savings and 130 bps from pricing benefits in second-quarter fiscal 2022. PG stock higher 0.45 (+0.29%) closed at 156.74 on Monday.


Because Starbucks is a global business, its latest financial results have been negatively impacted by the uneven pandemic recoveries in various markets across the world. Starbucks constantly introduces personalized offers and games to drive higher engagement. During Q2 2021, 53% of revenue at U.S. company-operated locations came from loyalty members. 

In China, Starbucks' second-biggest market, which just eclipsed 5.500 stores, there are now nearly 18 million Rewards members. These customers represented 75% of sales in the most recent quarter. As Starbucks tests and opens new innovative retail formats built for dense urban areas, expect the importance of technology to only rise for the business in China. SBUX stock lower 0.08 (-0.09%) closed at 93.65 on Monday.5.500 stores, there are now nearly 18 million Rewards members. These customers represented 75% of sales in the most recent quarter. As Starbucks tests and opens new innovative retail formats built for dense urban areas, expect the importance of technology to only rise for the business in China. SBUX stock lower 0.08 (-0.09%) closed at 93.65 on Monday.


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