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DAILY ANALYSIS

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Forecasting Strategy for Short Term Trade

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair remained on the defensive heading into the early North American session, albeit has managed to hold its neck above the 1.1300 round-figure mark. Having failed to make it through the 1.1340-50 resistance zone on Friday, the EUR/USD pair witnessed a subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new week.

This, in turn, drove some haven flows towards the greenback and acted as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. Apart from this, the Fed's hawkish outlook, indicating at least three rate hikes next year, further underpinned the greenback.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continued gaining traction through the mid-European session and shot to a fresh monthly high, around the 114.70-75 region in the last hour. The US dollar made a solid comeback on the first day of a new trading week and remained well supported by the Fed's hawkish outlook, indicating at least three-rate hikes next year.

This points to a well-established short-term bullish trend, which is reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory. The mentioned barrier, currently near the 114.85 region, is closely followed by the key 115.00 psychological mark, which if cleared will reaffirm the positive outlook.

GBP/USD

The The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed an early European session uptick and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily trading range, just below the 1.3400 mark. The British pound has been one of the top performers over the past one week or so amid more positive news concerning the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Uncertainty over the economic impact of the continuous rise in new COVID-19 cases tempered investors' appetite for riskier assets. This was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets, which benefitted the safe-haven greenback. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the vicinity of mid-1.3100.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair extended its steady intraday descent and dropped to a two-day low, around the 0.7200 round-figure mark during the mid-European session. The pair struggled to capitalize on its early uptick and instead met with a fresh supply near the 0.7240 region before turning lower for the second successive day on Monday.

Apart from that, the Fed's hawkish outlook, indicating at least three rate hikes next year, underpinned the greenback. This was seen as another factor that exerted pressure on the AUD/USD pair and dragged spot prices away from a near one-month high, around the mid-0.7200.

XAU/USD

Gold vs. the greenback slightly advances during the New York session, trading at $1.809.01 at the time of writing. The US 10-year Treasury yield is flat, clinging to the 1.484% threshold, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal vs. the buck. At the same time, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of its rivals, climbs some 0.15%, up to 96.17, staying above the 96.00 figure for the second consecutive week.

The yellow-metal remained subdued in a $1.802-$1.812.40 narrow-range, at the lack of a catalyst, as the financial markets enter the last week of the year. Depicted by the 1-hour chart, XAU/USD’s downward move was capped by the double-zero psychological level and the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA), which lies around $1.807, pushing the non-yielding metal to current price levels.

WTI

Western Texas Intermediate, also known as WTI, US crude oil benchmark, surged during the New York session, trading at $75.74 at the time of writing. A risk-on market mood keeps US equities and the black-gold advancing, despite the spread of the worsened of Covid-19 new variant and Christmas holiday season.

In the overnight session, WTI remained subdued around the $72.55-$73.50 range. However, in the last couple of hours, a spike of $2.5 is mainly attributed to thin liquidity trading conditions, which usually exacerbate any moves in the financial markets. The WTI daily chart depicts the black-gold has an upward bias. Through the day, oil pierced the 100-day moving average (DMA), leaving exposed the 50-DMA at $76.69. Nevertheless, the upward move was capped around the $76.00 figure, retreating some $0.25 to the current price.

#FB

Meta Platforms Inc. shares rose on Monday, with the Facebook parent company leading an advance among big-cap technology and internet stocks amid signs of strong demand for its Oculus virtual reality headset during the holiday season. The stock gained as much as 2.96% and was on track for its highest close since November.

Meta shares are up almost 12% off a low hit earlier this month, although they remain 10% below a September peak. Among other megacap tech stocks, Apple rose 0.6%, Microsoft Corp. gained 1.3% and Alphabet Inc. rose 0.5%. Facebook closed on Monday at 346.18 up 10.94 or 3.26%.

#GS

Goldman Sachs posted revenue of $13.61 billion in the third quarter of 2021 ended September 30, 2021. Revenue was up 26% on a year-over-year basis from $10.78 billion and surpassed consensus estimates of $11.67 billion by a huge margin. The company also posted quarterly earnings per share of $14.93, surpassing consensus estimates of $9.78 per share. The figure is in comparison to the $9.68 EPS generated in the third quarter of 2020.

Aside from this, the firm posted that its assets under management grew to $67 billion, including $49 billion worth of long-term net inflows, to $2.37 trillion at the end of the third quarter. Shares of Goldman Sachs jumped 3.8% after the announcement of its third quarter results. Goldman Sachs closed on Monday at 388.04 up 2.99 (0.78%).

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